Research Reports
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2026-09-23
Apple's Profit at Risk in the AI Agent Era · An Analyst-Grade Deep Dive
Apple's most fragile profit pool isn't the iPhone — it's the near-100%-margin "channel tax": App Store commissions (~$26B) and Google default-search revenue share (~$20B). AI agents drain this tax base through two channels: automatically routing through the cheapest compliant channel, and bypassing search on users' behalf. Under the base scenario, ~one-sixth of Services gross profit is eroded by 2031 (≈ one-tenth of company operating profit). Includes a downloadable three-scenario model.